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最終更新日:2024年3月15日

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国際金融・開発研究:経済学系(Monetary Policy)

This series of lectures is given by a former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, who spent almost forty years with the central bank and was involved in actual policy planning and implementation at some of the most critical moments for Japan’s economy. The lecture first revisits the challenges that Japan’s economy was faced with in the past three decades starting with the financial crises and compounded by deflation and demography. The lecture will elaborate on the roles of the Bank of Japan to maintain the financial stability and price stability. Students will share the experiences of those central bankers who were at the frontline managing the financial crisis. A special focus will be on the role of the so-called Lender of Last Resort function of the central banks. The lecture will also cover the invention of unconventional monetary policy tools and the way the policies evolved over time. Thus students are expected to have a clearer view on how macroeconomic and financial theories are translated into actual policies in a real world where the central bank is constrained by uncertainties, politics and social pressure. The lecture will conclude by identifying the measures needed besides the monetary policy to bring Japan’s economy back on track to sustained growth.
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時間割/共通科目コード
コース名
教員
学期
時限
5171007
GPP-DP6E70L3
国際金融・開発研究:経済学系(Monetary Policy)
中曽 宏
S1
水曜2限、水曜4限
マイリストに追加
マイリストから削除
講義使用言語
英語
単位
2
実務経験のある教員による授業科目
NO
他学部履修
不可
開講所属
公共政策学教育部
授業計画
Japan’s economic ordeal since the bursting of asset bubble three decades ago is explained by the home-grown financial crisis of the 1990s and the subsequent deflation that lasted over an extended period, compounded by the demography where production age population declines at a faster speed than the entire population. These issues are worth revisiting because they were initially thought to be of Japan’s idiosyncratic nature but later acknowledged to be common set of challenges for the rest of the world. The lecture will focus on the role played by the central bank to address the unprecedented financial crisis of the 1990s, which in retrospect was driven my similar dynamics that led to the Global Financial Crisis a decade after. Special focus will be on the so-called lender of last resort function performed by the central banks. There will be two case studies in the context of Japan’s financial crisis. One would be the “Dark November” of 1997, when four financial institutions, including internationally active ones, went under in a single month. The other case features the failure of Long Term Credit Bank of Japan which had a large book of cross-border derivative transaction and thus involved international dimensions. The lecture will assess successes and failures of crisis management by the Japanese authorities and elaborate on how their experiences were translated into a major overhaul of Japan’s safety net arrangements. Analysis of Japan’s experience of the home-grown financial crisis will be followed by an in-depth exploration of issues related to the Global Financial Crisis that involved the fall of Lehman Brothers. The creation of the dollar swap lines by the major central banks and the role it played in mitigating the financial crisis will be given a special focus as it added new dimensions to the traditional notion of the central banks’ lender of last resort function. A post-mortem analysis of the crisis will check in what way the regulatory and supervisory frameworks have been restructured to make the global financial system more resilient. To serve this purpose, a lecturer form outside, possibly a senior central bank official actually involved in the negotiations at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, will be invited to give an overview. The lecture will then cover, after recognizing how the two objectives of the central bank to meet financial stability add price stability are interlinked, the evolution of the monetary policy. Among various unconventional policies invented by the Bank of Japan after facing the zero lower bound, features of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), Negative Interest Policy and Yield Curve Control will be analyzed. Special attention will be paid to the efforts by the technocrats of the Bank of Japan to overcome policy challenges by improving the policy framework. Finally, achievement by the aggressive monetary accommodation and its limits are explored to find out what alternative policies are required to bring Japan’s economy back on track to sustained growth. In this context, focus will be on the policies to elevate Japan’s potential growth rates and measures to restore sustainable fiscal structure.
授業の方法
Lecture and discussion
成績評価方法
Term paper
教科書
No text books
参考書
The financial crisis in Japan during the 1990s: how the Bank of Japan responded and the lessons learnt (BIS Papers No 6, October 2001) Designing frameworks for central bank liquidity assistance: addressing new challenges (Committee on the Global Financial System BIS, April 2017)
履修上の注意
To be taught in English